How Will Sea Level Rise Affect Ipswich?

Sea levels rose about 8 inches globally and about 1 foot on the Eastern Seaboard in the past century. What would happen to Ipswich if catastrophic predictions for the 21st Century are realized?

In a December 6, 2012 report, NOAA’s Climate Program Office collaborated with authors from NASA, the U.S. Geological Survey, the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, the U.S. Department of Defense, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Columbia University, the University of Maryland, the University of Florida, and the South Florida Water Management District in a study that observed that global sea level rise has been a persistent trend for decades and is expected to continue beyond the end of this century. Their report gave a very high confidence (greater than 90% chance) that the global mean sea level will rise at least 8 inches (0.2 meters) and no more than 6.6 feet (2.0 meters) by 2100.

The images below link to an interactive map created by Climate Central that shows the impact of sea level rise in increments from one foot to ten feet.

Lowest sea level change scenario: 8″ rise

one_foot_rise — The lowest sea level change scenario (8-inch rise) is based on historic rates of observed sea level change. The causeway on Jeffreys Neck Rd. is below sea level.

Intermediate-low sea level change scenario (1.6 feet)

two_foot_rise — The intermediate-low scenario (1.6 feet) is based on projected ocean warming. Crane Beach is no longer accessible.

Intermediate-high sea level change scenario (3.9 feet)

four_foot_rise — The intermediate-high scenario (3.9 feet) is based on projected ocean warming by the year 2100 and recent ice sheet loss. Great Neck is an island, separated completely from the town.

Highest sea level change scenario (6.6 foot rise)

six_foot_rise — The highest sea level change scenario (6.6 foot rise) reflects ocean warming and the maximum plausible contribution of ice sheet loss and glacial melting. Water Street and much of Argilla Road are submerged.

10_feet_downtown — This map is a closeup of downtown Ipswich in the most extreme scenario if we continue with unchecked pollution. Sections of Market Street, Hammatt Street, Brown Square, South Main, Water Street, and East Street would be underwater. Until the middle of the 19th Century, the area around Farley Brook was a wetland that extended from Mineral Street to where it empties into the Ipswich River behind Market Street. Central Street and Brown Square came into existence in the mid-19th Century after the wetland was drained. Much of Farley Brook now runs underground. In coastal areas, sea level rise can contribute to freshwater bubbling up from underground, which would more than double the flooding caused by intruding seas alone.

Interactive global warming scenario map

Climate Central’s coastal risk climate temperature comparison tool compares global warming scenarios between 1 and 4 degrees Celsius will affect sea level rise and coastal flood maps, based on peer-reviewed science in leading journals. This screenshot shows the effect of a 4 degrees Celsius increase in global temperature and the sea level rise that will result. Research indicates that the maximum sea level in this tool could be realized between 200 and 2000 years from now.

2006 Ipswich Mothers Day Flood . Photo courtesy Ipswich River Watershed Association — Well before sea level rise inundates downtown, Ipswich is likely to experience more catastrophic flooding from increased water levels in the Ipswich River, which is brackish until it reaches the EBSCO Dam. The Mother’s Day Storm of 2006 gave the town a wake-up call.

Global Risk Screening Tool

Storm Surge

Abstract from Effects of Storm Surge and Sea Level Rise on “Eight Towns by the Bay” P. Curtis, C. Dicesare, T. Howington, Y. Kocak, M. Zubair December 16, 2009 – Salem State College

The eight coastal communities from Salisbury to Rockport, the “8 Towns by the Bay,” are exposed to varying degrees to coastal flooding resulting from sea level rise and storm surges. Elevation analysis of this region identifies those areas at risk of inundation at flood levels of 3 meters, 3.5 meters, and 4 meters above current sea levels.

Coastal areas are particularly at risk from sea level rise associated with climate change. More specifically, sea levels are expected to rise about 1 meter over the next 100 years, permanently inundating many low-lying areas. In addition, more frequent and more severe storms are expected to cause short-term flooding of coastal areas above and beyond the level of flooding caused by rising sea levels. This study considers the impact of sea level rise and storm surge flooding on the built and natural environments of 8 coastal towns along the northern portion of the Massachusetts coastline, Salisbury, Newburyport, Newbury, Rowley, Ipswich, Essex, Gloucester, and Rockport, the “8 Towns by the Bay.”

Of 388 sq. km. included in the eight towns, 83 sq. km. will be flooded under the 3-meter scenario, 94 sq. km. under the 3.5-meter scenario, and 102 meters under the 4-meter scenario, or 21%, 24%, and 26%, respectively.

Flooding on Jeffreys Neck Road, Feb 6, 2016 high tide. Photo by Ipswich Emergency Management, courtesy of TheLocal.Ne.IS — Flooding on Jeffreys Neck Road, Feb 6, 2016 high tide. Photo by Ipswich Emergency Management, courtesy of The Local News

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2 thoughts on “How Will Sea Level Rise Affect Ipswich?”

Nancy November 19, 202310:44 am Reply

Oh, no! This is quite alarming! Does the town have a plan to spare those iconic First Period homes?!!
davidjkentwriter May 8, 20169:41 pm Reply

Excellent post. Ipswich and other coastal towns will indeed feel the brunt of sea level rise in a major way.